Unlike last year, there’s no premiership certainty in 2023, according to Fox Footy pundits, who’ve struggled to split three of this AFL season’s top-four sides.
A stack of Fox Footy experts looked into their respective AFL crystal balls and predicted the premier, runner-up and Gary Ayres Medallist for the 2023 finals series.
They were also asked to predict if any of the top-four teams would be eliminated in straight-sets.
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Of Fox Footy’s 20 analysts surveyed, nine have tipped minor premiers Collingwood to follow in Geelong’s footsteps last year and claim the flag after finishing on top of the ladder.
Three tipsters — including Lions great Jonathan Brown — predicted Brisbane to win it from second, but another 12 said the Lions would make the Grand Final then lose the match.
Six pundits tipped Melbourne to claim the premiership cup — despite finishing fourth on the ladder at the end of the home and away season.
Former Carlton star Eddie Betts predicted his side to win the flag from fifth and defeat Collingwood in the Grand Final to do it.
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As pointed out on Fox Footy’s First Crack last month, no team that has finished fourth on the ladder since 2000 has won a premiership. And only Geelong in the Covid year of 2020 has made a Grand Final after finishing fourth.
“This is the most bizarre stat of all — the team that has finished fourth has not won a premiership in 23 years … It’s a death seat,” dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna told First Crack.
Coincidentally, Montagna has tipped Melbourne to claim the flag — although the former Saint pre-season predicted the Demons would win the premiership and last week declared the winner of Thursday’s Collingwood-Melbourne final would then go all the way.
The team that has finished third on the ladder has made the Grand Final in six of the past seven years. But there’s not a lot of love this year for Port Adelaide, with no Fox Footy pundit tipping Ken Hinkley’s side to even feature in the AFL’s showpiece match, let alone win it.
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And four pundits even predicted the Power to be eliminated in straight-sets.
As for the player of the finals, it’s a wide-open race, but Demons superstar Christian Petracca and Collingwood captain Darcy Moore both polled three votes each.
The winner has come from the premier in five of eight seasons, with Bulldog Jack Macrae (2021), Collingwood’s Steele Sidebottom (2018) and Sydney’s Josh Kennedy (2016) all having the advantage of playing four finals instead of three when they won it despite their teams not claiming the flag.
AFLW star and Fox Footy commentator Chloe Molloy — who so happens to be donning a red and white jumper this season — boldly predicted Sydney to win the flag from eighth.
FOX FOOTY EXPERT AFL FINALS 2023 PREDICTIONS (20 tipsters)
EDDIE BETTS (Fox Footy)
Premier: Carlton
Runner-up: Collingwood
Gary Ayres Medal: Charlie Curnow
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? Yes — Brisbane Lions
DERMOTT BRERETON (Fox Footy)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
JONATHAN BROWN (Fox Footy)
Premier: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Collingwood
Gary Ayres Medal: Jordan De Goey (Collingwood)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? Yes — Port Adelaide
NATHAN BUCKLEY (Fox Footy)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Jack Viney (Melbourne)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
BEN COTTON (foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Jordan De Goey (Collingwood)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
BEN DIXON (Fox Footy)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Darcy Moore (Collingwood)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? Yes — Port Adelaide
CATHERINE HEALEY (foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Toby Greene (GWS Giants)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
ANTHONY HUDSON (Fox Footy)
Premier: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Collingwood
Gary Ayres Medal: Joe Daniher (Brisbane Lions)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
DREW JONES (Fox Sports News)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Darcy Moore (Collingwood)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? Yes — Port Adelaide
SARAH JONES (Fox Footy)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Darcy Moore (Collingwood)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
MAX LAUGHTON (foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
KATH LOUGHNAN (Fox Footy)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? Yes — Port Adelaide
CHLOE MOLLOY (Fox Footy)
Premier: Sydney Swans
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Dan Houston (Port Adelaide)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? Yes — Brisbane Lions
LEIGH MONTAGNA (Fox Footy)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
ADAM PAPALIA (Fox Footy)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
JON RALPH (Herald Sun/Fox Footy)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
MARK RICCIUTO (Fox Footy)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Christian Petracca
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
DWAYNE RUSSELL (Fox Footy)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Max Gawn (Melbourne)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
BEN WATERWORTH (foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Brisbane Lions
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Max Gawn (Melbourne)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
DAVID ZITA (foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Collingwood
Runner-up: Brisbane Lions
Gary Ayres Medal: Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
Will any of the top-four teams be knocked out in straight-sets, and if so, who? No
FINAL TALLIES
Premier
9 (out of 20 votes) — Collingwood
6 — Melbourne
3 — Brisbane Lions
1 — Sydney Swans, Carlton
Runner-up
12 (out of 20 votes) — Brisbane Lions
5 — Melbourne
3 — Collingwood
Gary Ayres Award
4 (out of 20 votes) — Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
3 — Darcy Moore (Collingwood), Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2 — Jordan De Goey (Collingwood), Max Gawn (Melbourne)
1 — Toby Greene (GWS Giants), Clayton Oliver (Melbourne), Joe Daniher (Brisbane Lions), Dan Houston (Port Adelaide), Jack Viney (Melbourne), Charlie Curnow (Carlton)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets?
14 (out of 20 votes) — No
4 — Yes, Port Adelaide
2 — Yes, Brisbane Lions